Market is split — 29°C at 55%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29°C | 55% | +82% | $3K |
| 2 | 30°C | 22% | +355% | $4K |
| 3 | 28°C | 17% | +488% | $1K |
| 4 | 27°C BEST VALUE | 11% | +809% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market wi...
This prediction market tracks whether Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with 29°C leading at just 55%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (98% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 10, 2026 at 07:55 UTC, the leading outcome is 29°C at 55% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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