The market strongly favors 15°C at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15°C | 96% | +5% | $6K |
| 2 | 14°C | 5% | +1920% | $3K |
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26. The resolution source for this mar...
This prediction market tracks whether Lowest temperature in London on July 17? will occur, with $33K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 15°C is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (62% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-17. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 17, 2026 at 06:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 15°C at 96% probability, with $33K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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