No clear favorite. 76-77°F leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76-77°F | 36% | +178% | $394 |
| 2 | 80-81°F | 33% | +203% | $2K |
| 3 | 78-79°F | 31% | +223% | $1K |
| 4 | 74-75°F | 7% | +1308% | $1K |
| 5 | 82-83°F BEST VALUE | 7% | +1329% | $1K |
| 6 | 73°F or below | 3% | +3025% | $2K |
| 7 | 84-85°F | 1% | +7592% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this mar...
This prediction market tracks whether Lowest temperature in NYC on July 4? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — 76-77°F leads at only 36% across 7 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (94% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 04, 2026 at 04:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 76-77°F at 36% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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