The market strongly favors 23°C at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23°C | 90% | +11% | $2K |
| 2 | 22°C BEST VALUE | 6% | +1553% | $376 |
| 3 | 21°C | 1% | +7592% | $488 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution s...
This prediction market tracks whether Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 23°C is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (89% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 28, 2026 at 19:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 23°C at 90% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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