No clear favorite. Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? leads at just 12%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | 12% | +770% | $200K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and...
This prediction market tracks whether Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? will occur, with $200K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? leads at only 12% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $21K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 23, 2026 at 18:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? at 12% probability, with $200K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $200K, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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