This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑1k | 100% | $72K |
| 2 | ↑500 | 100% | $103K |
| 3 | ↑2k | 98% | $36K |
| 4 | ↑3k | 84% | $25K |
| 5 | ↑4k | 64% | $129K |
| 6 | ↑5k | 50% | $186K |
| 7 | ↑7.5k | 22% | $152K |
| 8 | ↑10k | 14% | $6.5M |
| 9 | ↑12.5k | 12% | $316K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑1k at 100% probability, with $7.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $7.5M, with $37K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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