The market strongly favors Jacob Misiorowski at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $1.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 96% | +5% | $3K |
| 2 | Cam Schlittler | 3% | +3348% | $250 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this...
This prediction market tracks whether MLB: ERA Leader will occur, with $1.8M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Jacob Misiorowski is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $13K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 26, 2026 at 09:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Jacob Misiorowski at 96% probability, with $1.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.8M, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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