Market is split — Player D at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Player D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 2 | Player E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Player F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber | 23% | +335% | $96K |
| 6 | Junior Caminero | 22% | +344% | $38K |
| 7 | Munetaka Murakami | 16% | +545% | $64K |
| 8 | Jac Caglianone | 12% | +733% | $17K |
| 9 | Jordan Walker | 11% | +805% | $25K |
| 10 | Bryce Harper | 10% | +942% | $36K |
| 11 | Ben Rice BEST VALUE | 8% | +1150% | $10K |
| 12 | Willson Contreras | 4% | +2122% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled for July 13, 2026, 5 PM ET. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 MLB Home R...
This prediction market tracks whether MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner will occur, with $266K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market is closely contested, with Player D leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $262K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 13, 2026 at 23:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Player D at 50% probability, with $266K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $266K, with $262K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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