The market strongly favors 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 86% | +16% | - |
| 2 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 71% | +41% | - |
| 3 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 58% | +72% | - |
| 4 | NRFI | 53% | +89% | $52 |
| 5 | O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | $3K |
| 6 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 45% | +122% | $32 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals | 42% | +135% | $44K |
| 8 | Spread -1.5 | 40% | +153% | $3K |
| 9 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 38% | +160% | - |
| 10 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 36% | +182% | $13 |
| 11 | O/U 11.5 | 34% | +194% | $72 |
| 12 | Spread -1.5 | 34% | +199% | $1K |
| 13 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 28% | +264% | - |
| 14 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% | +292% | - |
| 15 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 14% | +641% | - |
| 16 | Extra Innings BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $10 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 5 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the...
This prediction market tracks whether Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals will occur, with $48K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $48K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 05, 2026 at 16:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 86% probability, with $48K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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