The market strongly favors Luis Arraez at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis Arraez | 94% | +7% | - |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 93% | +7% | $1K |
| 3 | Casey Mize | 90% | +10% | $435 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 88% | +13% | $684 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 82% | +22% | $514 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 50% | +100% | $275 |
| 7 | Adrian Morejon | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | José Soriano | 42% | +135% | - |
| 9 | Jarren Duran | 39% | +156% | $40 |
| 10 | Ryan Jeffers | 36% | +182% | $100 |
| 11 | Zach Neto | 36% | +182% | $416 |
| 12 | Mason Miller | 30% | +228% | $846 |
| 13 | Reid Detmers | 20% | +400% | $20 |
| 14 | Jung Hoo Lee | 18% | +441% | $440 |
| 15 | CJ Abrams | 14% | +590% | $151 |
| 16 | Josh Hader | 7% | +1381% | $3K |
| 17 | Jeremy Pena BEST VALUE | 6% | +1513% | $3K |
| 18 | Shea Langeliers | 4% | +2532% | $792 |
| 19 | Mike Trout | 3% | +3025% | $469 |
| 20 | Aroldis Chapman | 2% | +3900% | $480 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Major League Baseball player is traded by August 3, 2026, 9:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the listed player is released, ret...
This prediction market tracks whether MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline? will occur, with $20K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Luis Arraez is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 01, 2026 at 07:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Luis Arraez at 94% probability, with $20K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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