No clear favorite. July 31 leads at just 9%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 BEST VALUE | 9% | +1017% | $6K |
| 2 | July 24 | 4% | +2173% | $7K |
| 3 | July 17 | 1% | +16567% | $4K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Fedorov wi...
This prediction market tracks whether Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...? will occur, with $16K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 31 leads at only 9% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 17, 2026 at 08:35 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 9% probability, with $16K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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