The market strongly favors October 31 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 31 BEST VALUE | 100% | +0% | $8K |
| 2 | December 31 | 100% | +0% | $8K |
| 3 | October 15 | 100% | +0% | $9K |
| 4 | October 7 | 100% | +0% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released by...? will occur, with $40K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: October 31 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (39% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 07, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31 at 100% probability, with $40K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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