The market strongly favors 35%+ at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35%+ | 100% | - | $3K |
| 2 | 40%+ | 100% | - | $5K |
| 3 | 45%+ | 100% | - | $5K |
| 4 | 50%+ | 100% | - | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM E...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? will occur, with $62K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 35%+ is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $37K traded in the last 24 hours alone (59% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 10, 2026 at 00:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 35%+ at 100% probability, with $62K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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