No clear favorite. July 23 leads at just 29%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 23 | 29% | +245% | $1K |
| 2 | July 24 | 16% | +515% | $240 |
| 3 | No release by July 31 | 14% | +590% | $3K |
| 4 | July 28 | 12% | +700% | $2K |
| 5 | July 21 | 10% | +953% | $4K |
| 6 | July 22 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $1K |
| 7 | July 29 | 5% | +1920% | $1K |
| 8 | July 27 | 4% | +2400% | $2K |
| 9 | July 30 | 4% | +2532% | $983 |
| 10 | July 20 | 4% | +2757% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Op...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Claude Opus released on...? will occur, with $23K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 23 leads at only 29% across 10 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (49% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 20, 2026 at 10:55 UTC, the leading outcome is July 23 at 29% probability, with $23K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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