No clear favorite. September 21 leads at just 33%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 21 | 33% | +201% | $15K |
| 2 | September 22 | 28% | +251% | $5K |
| 3 | September 24 | 11% | +809% | $5K |
| 4 | No release by September 30 | 9% | +1011% | $6K |
| 5 | September 23 BEST VALUE | 7% | +1349% | $3K |
| 6 | September 29 | 5% | +1962% | $2K |
| 7 | September 25 | 3% | +3290% | $2K |
| 8 | September 30 | 2% | +5456% | $2K |
| 9 | September 27 | 1% | +12400% | $1K |
| 10 | September 26 | 1% | +13233% | $1K |
| 11 | September 28 | 1% | +14186% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Claude Opus released on...? will occur, with $46K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — September 21 leads at only 33% across 11 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (44% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 21, 2026 at 03:05 UTC, the leading outcome is September 21 at 33% probability, with $46K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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