No clear favorite. No release by October 31 leads at just 16%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No release by October 31 | 16% | +513% | $6K |
| 2 | October 13 | 13% | +691% | $83 |
| 3 | October 14 | 12% | +726% | $827 |
| 4 | October 15 | 11% | +801% | $2K |
| 5 | October 16 | 11% | +830% | $1K |
| 6 | October 9 | 11% | +835% | $52 |
| 7 | October 12 | 10% | +926% | $86 |
| 8 | October 19 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1735% | $1K |
| 9 | October 21 | 5% | +1941% | $840 |
| 10 | October 17 | 5% | +2051% | $61 |
| 11 | October 26 | 4% | +2369% | $773 |
| 12 | October 29 | 4% | +2640% | $828 |
| 13 | October 28 | 3% | +2930% | $259 |
| 14 | October 20 | 3% | +3179% | $260 |
| 15 | October 22 | 3% | +3409% | $221 |
| 16 | October 27 | 3% | +3604% | $930 |
| 17 | October 11 | 2% | +5163% | $568 |
| 18 | October 8 | 1% | +7043% | $1K |
| 19 | October 10 | 1% | +8991% | $508 |
| 20 | October 30 | 1% | +16567% | $128 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identif...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? will occur, with $23K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — No release by October 31 leads at only 16% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (43% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 08, 2026 at 14:45 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 16% probability, with $23K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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