No clear favorite. No release by October 31 leads at just 12%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No release by October 31 | 12% | +770% | $20K |
| 2 | On or prior to October 1 BEST VALUE | 10% | +852% | $1K |
| 3 | October 14 | 5% | +1920% | $117 |
| 4 | October 15 | 5% | +1920% | $426 |
| 5 | October 25 | 5% | +2005% | $488 |
| 6 | October 16 | 4% | +2122% | $75 |
| 7 | October 18 | 4% | +2400% | $75 |
| 8 | October 23 | 4% | +2400% | $715 |
| 9 | October 24 | 4% | +2400% | $75 |
| 10 | October 11 | 4% | +2717% | $3K |
| 11 | October 26 | 4% | +2717% | $560 |
| 12 | October 28 | 4% | +2757% | $367 |
| 13 | October 10 | 3% | +2799% | $924 |
| 14 | October 3 | 3% | +3179% | $208 |
| 15 | October 2 | 3% | +3746% | $182 |
| 16 | October 17 | 2% | +4778% | $516 |
| 17 | October 21 | 2% | +4778% | $378 |
| 18 | October 30 | 2% | +4778% | $814 |
| 19 | October 13 | 2% | +6567% | $109 |
| 20 | October 22 | 1% | +9424% | $296 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and label...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Gemini Pro Model released on...? will occur, with $34K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — No release by October 31 leads at only 12% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (38% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 30, 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 12% probability, with $34K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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