Market is split — August 10 at 41%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 10 | 41% | +145% | $973 |
| 2 | August 4 | 30% | +233% | $312 |
| 3 | August 11 | 28% | +251% | $338 |
| 4 | August 12 | 20% | +388% | $321 |
| 5 | August 22 | 18% | +441% | $172 |
| 6 | August 28 | 18% | +471% | $182 |
| 7 | August 7 | 16% | +545% | $455 |
| 8 | August 23 | 15% | +567% | $182 |
| 9 | August 24 | 15% | +567% | $177 |
| 10 | August 26 | 15% | +567% | $145 |
| 11 | August 13 | 12% | +700% | $328 |
| 12 | August 6 | 12% | +713% | $352 |
| 13 | No release by August 31 | 12% | +770% | $2K |
| 14 | August 25 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1150% | $1K |
| 15 | August 27 | 4% | +2369% | $3K |
| 16 | August 3 | 3% | +3126% | $326 |
| 17 | August 29 | 3% | +3290% | $3K |
| 18 | August 5 | 2% | +5961% | $517 |
| 19 | August 9 | 1% | +15285% | $340 |
| 20 | August 8 | 1% | +16567% | $321 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and label...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? will occur, with $20K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with August 10 leading at just 41%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (66% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 03, 2026 at 16:55 UTC, the leading outcome is August 10 at 41% probability, with $20K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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