No release by October 31 leads at 77%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No release by October 31 | 77% | +30% | $11K |
| 2 | October 13 | 7% | +1427% | $587 |
| 3 | October 23 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $750 |
| 4 | October 31 | 3% | +3126% | $690 |
| 5 | October 24 | 3% | +3409% | $466 |
| 6 | October 30 | 3% | +3471% | $539 |
| 7 | October 18 | 2% | +4155% | $464 |
| 8 | October 20 | 2% | +4778% | $540 |
| 9 | October 14 | 2% | +5028% | $3K |
| 10 | October 22 | 2% | +5028% | $485 |
| 11 | October 19 | 2% | +6150% | $2K |
| 12 | October 17 | 1% | +7307% | $550 |
| 13 | October 28 | 1% | +7900% | $3K |
| 14 | October 15 | 1% | +15285% | $491 |
| 15 | October 16 | 1% | +15285% | $2K |
| 16 | October 25 | 1% | +18082% | $509 |
| 17 | October 27 | 1% | +18082% | $329 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identif...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...? will occur, with $44K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward No release by October 31 at 77%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (30% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 12, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 77% probability, with $44K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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