No clear favorite. Ariel Pakes leads at just 32%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariel Pakes | 32% | +208% | $462 |
| 2 | Susan Athey | 22% | +355% | $3K |
| 3 | Robert Barro | 12% | +770% | $2K |
| 4 | Richard Blundell | 11% | +843% | $754 |
| 5 | Partha Dasgupta | 9% | +1011% | $4K |
| 6 | Matthew Rabin | 8% | +1076% | $766 |
| 7 | Andreu Mas-Colell | 8% | +1105% | $633 |
| 8 | Ernst Fehr BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $856 |
| 9 | Luigi Zingales | 8% | +1233% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM...
This prediction market tracks whether Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026 will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Ariel Pakes leads at only 32% across 9 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 06, 2026 at 14:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Ariel Pakes at 32% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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