No clear favorite. Yulia Navalnaya leads at just 8%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $23.3M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yulia Navalnaya | 8% | +1076% | $289K |
| 2 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy BEST VALUE | 6% | +1581% | $790K |
| 3 | UNRWA | 4% | +2432% | $2.0M |
| 4 | Pope Leo XIV | 3% | +3075% | $810K |
| 5 | Donald Trump | 3% | +3471% | $4.3M |
| 6 | Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2% | +4155% | $783K |
| 7 | International Court of Justice | 2% | +4248% | $898K |
| 8 | Julian Assange | 1% | +7592% | $849K |
| 9 | Narendra Modi | 1% | +7592% | $686K |
| 10 | Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1% | +8991% | $1.3M |
| 11 | Greta Thunberg | 1% | +9424% | $1.5M |
| 12 | António Guterres | 1% | +13233% | $626K |
| 13 | Xi Jinping | 1% | +15285% | $1.4M |
| 14 | Charlie Kirk | 1% | +18082% | $1.2M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, th...
This prediction market tracks whether Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 will occur, with $23.3M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Yulia Navalnaya leads at only 8% across 14 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $17K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 05:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Yulia Navalnaya at 8% probability, with $23.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $23.3M, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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