No clear favorite. UNRWA leads at just 11%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $21.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNRWA | 11% | +805% | $2.0M |
| 2 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 10% | +947% | $579K |
| 3 | Donald Trump | 8% | +1233% | $3.7M |
| 4 | Yulia Navalnaya | 6% | +1438% | $207K |
| 5 | Pope Leo XIV BEST VALUE | 5% | +1861% | $774K |
| 6 | Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 4% | +2678% | $666K |
| 7 | Narendra Modi | 2% | +3982% | $636K |
| 8 | International Court of Justice | 2% | +4551% | $856K |
| 9 | Greta Thunberg | 2% | +6352% | $1.4M |
| 10 | Xi Jinping | 1% | +9424% | $1.4M |
| 11 | António Guterres | 1% | +10426% | $560K |
| 12 | Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1% | +10426% | $1.2M |
| 13 | Mohammed bin Salman | 1% | +11665% | $1.1M |
| 14 | Elon Musk | 1% | +11665% | $1.1M |
| 15 | Charlie Kirk | 1% | +11665% | $1.2M |
| 16 | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 1% | +13233% | $997K |
| 17 | Julian Assange | 1% | +13233% | $791K |
| 18 | Khaled Mashal | 1% | +15285% | $789K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, th...
This prediction market tracks whether Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 will occur, with $21.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — UNRWA leads at only 11% across 18 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $71K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 29, 2026 at 03:05 UTC, the leading outcome is UNRWA at 11% probability, with $21.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $21.4M, with $71K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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