This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 11% | $402K |
| 2 | Yulia Navalnaya | 10% | $80K |
| 3 | Donald Trump | 8% | $2.3M |
| 4 | Pope Leo XIV | 4% | $499K |
| 5 | International Court of Justice | 4% | $514K |
| 6 | Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 4% | $361K |
| 7 | UNRWA | 3% | $1.7M |
| 8 | Greta Thunberg | 3% | $939K |
| 9 | Narendra Modi | 3% | $293K |
| 10 | Elon Musk | 2% | $521K |
| 11 | Charlie Kirk | 2% | $547K |
| 12 | António Guterres | 2% | $143K |
| 13 | Ahmed al-Sharaa | 2% | $568K |
| 14 | Xi Jinping | 2% | $765K |
| 15 | Julian Assange | 2% | $339K |
| 16 | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2% | $405K |
| 17 | Khaled Mashal | 1% | $205K |
| 18 | Mohammed bin Salman | 1% | $568K |
| 19 | Vladimir Putin | 1% | $498K |
| 20 | Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% | $319K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 11% probability, with $11.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $11.9M, with $186K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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