No clear favorite. Yulia Navalnaya leads at just 10%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yulia Navalnaya | 10% | +953% | $2K |
| 2 | Donald Trump | 9% | +1011% | $6K |
| 3 | UNRWA | 8% | +1150% | $101 |
| 4 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 7% | +1289% | $2K |
| 5 | Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 7% | +1329% | $21 |
| 6 | International Criminal Court | 7% | +1329% | $21 |
| 7 | Doctors Without Borders | 7% | +1329% | $21 |
| 8 | António Guterres | 6% | +1567% | $141 |
| 9 | Jimmy Lai | 6% | +1567% | $241 |
| 10 | Committee to Protect Journalists | 6% | +1567% | - |
| 11 | Greta Thunberg BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $333 |
| 12 | International Court of Justice | 6% | +1718% | - |
| 13 | Julian Assange | 4% | +2369% | $625 |
| 14 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 4% | +2400% | $240 |
| 15 | Elon Musk | 3% | +3075% | $290 |
| 16 | Pope Leo XIV | 2% | +4551% | $426 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...
This prediction market tracks whether Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027 will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Yulia Navalnaya leads at only 10% across 16 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (101% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-04-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 13, 2026 at 02:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Yulia Navalnaya at 10% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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