The market strongly favors July 21 at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 21 | 92% | +8% | $1K |
| 2 | July 20 | 85% | +18% | $1K |
| 3 | July 19 BEST VALUE | 74% | +36% | $5K |
| 4 | July 18 | 1% | +7043% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". T...
This prediction market tracks whether NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...? will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: July 21 is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-21. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 18, 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the leading outcome is July 21 at 92% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms