The market strongly favors $100M at 87%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100M | 87% | +15% | $115K |
| 2 | $200M | 41% | +144% | $17K |
| 3 | $300M | 23% | +335% | $3K |
| 4 | $400M | 10% | +900% | $1K |
| 5 | $1B BEST VALUE | 6% | +1686% | $1K |
| 6 | $500M | 5% | +1983% | $124 |
| 7 | $700M | 3% | +3179% | $181 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No...
This prediction market tracks whether o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch? will occur, with $138K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by cryptocurrency market dynamics, regulatory developments, and on-chain sentiment.
The market shows strong consensus: $100M is priced at 87%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (16% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 15, 2026 at 13:05 UTC, the leading outcome is $100M at 87% probability, with $138K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $138K, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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