The market strongly favors 1st hottest at 95%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st hottest | 95% | +5% | $16K |
| 2 | 3rd hottest | 4% | +2122% | $7K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tie...
This prediction market tracks whether October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? will occur, with $26K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 1st hottest is priced at 95%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (46% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 12, 2026 at 18:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 1st hottest at 95% probability, with $26K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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