1480+ leads at 84%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1480+ | 84% | +19% | $7K |
| 2 | 1490+ | 62% | +60% | $4K |
| 3 | 1500+ | 25% | +300% | $681 |
| 4 | 1510+ BEST VALUE | 8% | +1150% | $314 |
| 5 | 1520+ | 8% | +1150% | $68 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mat...
This prediction market tracks whether OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 1480+ at 84%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
As of Aug 14, 2026 at 06:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 1480+ at 84% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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