The market strongly favors October 31 at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 31 | 90% | +10% | $2K |
| 2 | September 30 | 84% | +18% | $10K |
| 3 | September 15 | 74% | +36% | $6 |
| 4 | August 31 | 70% | +42% | $10K |
| 5 | August 15 BEST VALUE | 48% | +109% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mat...
This prediction market tracks whether OpenAI’s Astra released by…? will occur, with $37K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: October 31 is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (43% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 07, 2026 at 05:05 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31 at 90% probability, with $37K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms