The market strongly favors Matt Damon at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Damon | 91% | +10% | $7K |
| 2 | John Malkovich | 88% | +14% | $6K |
| 3 | Andrew Scott | 86% | +17% | $9K |
| 4 | Tom Cruise | 62% | +61% | $19K |
| 5 | Robert Pattinson | 50% | +102% | $11K |
| 6 | Ryan Gosling | 43% | +133% | $10K |
| 7 | John Turturro | 42% | +141% | $5K |
| 8 | Anthony Ippolito | 38% | +160% | $5K |
| 9 | Jaafar Jackson | 20% | +400% | $12K |
| 10 | Pedro Pascal | 19% | +429% | $11K |
| 11 | Timothée Chalamet | 14% | +590% | $18K |
| 12 | Sebastian Stan | 13% | +669% | $7K |
| 13 | Sam Rockwell | 8% | +1150% | $6K |
| 14 | Josh O'Connor | 6% | +1450% | $225 |
| 15 | Adam Driver BEST VALUE | 6% | +1513% | $2K |
| 16 | Javier Bardem | 5% | +1962% | $499 |
| 17 | Brad Pitt | 5% | +2074% | $2K |
| 18 | Robert Aramayo | 3% | +2930% | $8K |
| 19 | Jeremy Strong | 1% | +18082% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 20...
This prediction market tracks whether Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations will occur, with $140K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Matt Damon is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours alone (23% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-03-15. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 21, 2026 at 17:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Matt Damon at 91% probability, with $140K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $140K, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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