This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49% | - |
| 2 | J.D. Vance | 37% | $7.1M |
| 3 | Marco Rubio | 20% | $6.7M |
| 4 | Tucker Carlson | 5% | $7.3M |
| 5 | Ron DeSantis | 3% | $8.2M |
| 6 | Glenn Youngkin | 2% | $5.7M |
| 7 | Donald Trump | 2% | $6.4M |
| 8 | Thomas Massie | 2% | $2.8M |
| 9 | Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | $6.0M |
| 10 | Rand Paul | 1% | $16.1M |
| 11 | Vivek Ramaswamy | 1% | $12.4M |
| 12 | Ivanka Trump | 1% | $5.4M |
| 13 | Greg Abbott | 1% | $17.4M |
| 14 | Ted Cruz | 1% | $14.2M |
| 15 | Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | $9.4M |
| 16 | Elon Musk | 1% | $21.8M |
| 17 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1% | $4.0M |
| 18 | Nikki Haley | 1% | $7.3M |
| 19 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% | $11.0M |
| 20 | Brian Kemp | 1% | $13.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 18:48 UTC, the leading outcome is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% probability, with $496.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $496.1M, with $7.1M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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