$150-$200 leads at 61%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $150-$200 | 61% | +64% | $2K |
| 2 | $100-$150 | 25% | +300% | $1K |
| 3 | $200-$250 BEST VALUE | 11% | +809% | $2K |
| 4 | $250+ | 4% | +2226% | $1K |
| 5 | <$100 | 3% | +3746% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028"....
This prediction market tracks whether SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward $150-$200 at 61%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (90% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 05:15 UTC, the leading outcome is $150-$200 at 61% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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