The market strongly favors June 12 at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 12 BEST VALUE | 99% | +1% | $93K |
| 2 | June 18 | 1% | +15285% | $2K |
| 3 | June 22 | 1% | +15285% | $3K |
| 4 | June 15 | 1% | +18082% | $6K |
| 5 | June 24 | 1% | +18082% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the date, in Eastern Time, that SpaceX launches its Initial Public Offering (IPO). For the purposes of this market, an IPO refers to the first public sale of shares...
This prediction market tracks whether SpaceX IPO Date will occur, with $160K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: June 12 is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $23K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 20:15 UTC, the leading outcome is June 12 at 99% probability, with $160K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $160K, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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