Market is split — $150-$200 at 51%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $150-$200 | 51% | +96% | $2K |
| 2 | $100-$150 | 22% | +355% | $3K |
| 3 | $200-$250 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $2K |
| 4 | $250+ | 3% | +3179% | $4K |
| 5 | <$100 | 1% | +8596% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028"....
This prediction market tracks whether SpaceX IPO: Opening Share Price will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with $150-$200 leading at just 51%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 21:05 UTC, the leading outcome is $150-$200 at 51% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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