The market strongly favors Elon Musk at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elon Musk | 98% | +2% | $250 |
| 2 | Bret Johnsen | 96% | +5% | $922 |
| 3 | Gwynne Shotwell | 94% | +7% | $62 |
| 4 | Mark Juncosa | 75% | +33% | $3K |
| 5 | Jonathan Hofeller | 56% | +77% | $156 |
| 6 | Brian Bjelde | 50% | +100% | $2K |
| 7 | Antonio Gracias | 46% | +115% | $3K |
| 8 | Shivon Zilis | 42% | +138% | $2K |
| 9 | X Æ A-Xii | 36% | +182% | $2K |
| 10 | Luke Nosek | 26% | +292% | $484 |
| 11 | Steve Jurvetson | 22% | +355% | $216 |
| 12 | Kimbal Musk BEST VALUE | 12% | +733% | $819 |
| 13 | Grimes | 2% | +5028% | $3K |
| 14 | Donald Trump | 1% | +7043% | $3K |
| 15 | Barron Trump | 1% | +7592% | $670 |
| 16 | Hasan Piker | 1% | +10426% | $506 |
| 17 | Vivian Wilson | 1% | +13233% | $157 |
| 18 | Ashley St. Clair | 1% | +18082% | $152 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bel...
This prediction market tracks whether SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Elon Musk is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 11:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Elon Musk at 98% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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