The market strongly favors August 31 at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 91% | +10% | $3K |
| 2 | Successful splash down? | 80% | +24% | $2K |
| 3 | Super Heavy booster explodes? | 78% | +29% | $22K |
| 4 | July 31 BEST VALUE | 71% | +41% | $35K |
| 5 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 2% | +6567% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13.
This prediction market tracks whether SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will occur, with $69K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: August 31 is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
As of Jul 08, 2026 at 22:15 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 91% probability, with $69K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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