The market strongly favors $90 at 97%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $90 | 97% | +3% | $3K |
| 2 | $100 | 92% | +9% | $3K |
| 3 | $110 | 82% | +22% | $14K |
| 4 | $120 | 62% | +63% | $2K |
| 5 | $130 | 41% | +144% | $3K |
| 6 | $200 | 40% | +150% | - |
| 7 | $140 | 22% | +344% | $7K |
| 8 | $210 | 19% | +439% | $200 |
| 9 | $150 | 11% | +809% | $3K |
| 10 | $160 | 7% | +1427% | $583 |
| 11 | $170 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1880% | - |
| 12 | $190 | 1% | +7043% | $596 |
| 13 | $180 | 1% | +8991% | $898 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above ___ end of July? will occur, with $36K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: $90 is priced at 97%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (57% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 17, 2026 at 17:15 UTC, the leading outcome is $90 at 97% probability, with $36K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms