S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12? leads at 64%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12? | 64% | +57% | $25K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 12, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most r...
This prediction market tracks whether S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12? will occur, with $25K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12? at 64%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours alone (96% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 12, 2026 at 16:15 UTC, the leading outcome is S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12? at 64% probability, with $25K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms