The market strongly favors Colorado at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado | 98% | +2% | $743 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 98% | +2% | $694 |
| 3 | Texas | 97% | +3% | $964 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 97% | +3% | $374 |
| 5 | Idaho | 94% | +6% | $691 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 94% | +6% | $588 |
| 7 | Nebraska | 94% | +7% | - |
| 8 | Oregon | 94% | +7% | - |
| 9 | Mississippi | 82% | +23% | $140 |
| 10 | North Carolina | 73% | +37% | $454 |
| 11 | Nevada | 72% | +38% | $460 |
| 12 | Utah | 67% | +49% | $529 |
| 13 | Wyoming | 13% | +643% | $319 |
| 14 | Wisconsin | 10% | +900% | $686 |
| 15 | Florida | 10% | +953% | $876 |
| 16 | South Carolina | 8% | +1076% | $194 |
| 17 | Washington | 8% | +1076% | $50 |
| 18 | South Dakota | 7% | +1289% | $413 |
| 19 | North Dakota BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $145 |
| 20 | Kansas | 5% | +2074% | $491 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwi...
This prediction market tracks whether Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 1, 2026 will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: Colorado is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (97% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 27, 2026 at 21:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Colorado at 98% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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