No clear favorite. Zohran Mamdani leads at just 28%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zohran Mamdani | 28% | +251% | $36K |
| 2 | Mark Carney | 18% | +471% | $9K |
| 3 | Pope Leo XIV | 10% | +953% | $23K |
| 4 | Dario Amodei | 8% | +1216% | $3K |
| 5 | Benjamin Netanyahu | 6% | +1438% | $7K |
| 6 | Elon Musk | 6% | +1438% | $4K |
| 7 | Donald Trump | 6% | +1438% | $14K |
| 8 | Artificial Intelligence | 6% | +1462% | $7K |
| 9 | Marco Rubio | 5% | +1880% | $4K |
| 10 | Reid Wiseman BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $129 |
| 11 | Sam Altman | 5% | +1962% | $291 |
| 12 | Victor Glover | 4% | +2226% | $162 |
| 13 | Jeremy Hansen | 4% | +2369% | $241 |
| 14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 4% | +2400% | $350 |
| 15 | Christina Koch | 4% | +2432% | $528 |
| 16 | Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4% | +2497% | $9K |
| 17 | Bad Bunny | 4% | +2603% | $248 |
| 18 | Shehbaz Sharif | 3% | +2930% | $176 |
| 19 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 3% | +2930% | $319 |
| 20 | ChatGPT | 3% | +3075% | $146 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TI...
This prediction market tracks whether TIME Person of the Year 2026 will occur, with $128K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Zohran Mamdani leads at only 28% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $13K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 14, 2026 at 09:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Zohran Mamdani at 28% probability, with $128K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $128K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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