The market strongly favors $5M at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $5M | 98% | +2% | $4K |
| 2 | $20M | 79% | +27% | $2K |
| 3 | $40M | 43% | +133% | $45K |
| 4 | $80M | 8% | +1233% | $20K |
| 5 | $100M BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $20K |
| 6 | $150M | 1% | +8991% | $23K |
| 7 | $400M | 1% | +8991% | $8K |
| 8 | $500M | 1% | +10426% | $10K |
| 9 | $300M | 1% | +11011% | $24K |
| 10 | $200M | 1% | +18082% | $22K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only...
This prediction market tracks whether Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch? will occur, with $178K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by cryptocurrency market dynamics, regulatory developments, and on-chain sentiment.
The market shows strong consensus: $5M is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $19K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 16, 2026 at 15:15 UTC, the leading outcome is $5M at 98% probability, with $178K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $178K, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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