Market is split — $40M at 42%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $40M | 42% | +135% | $21K |
| 2 | $80M | 32% | +217% | $12K |
| 3 | $100M | 22% | +344% | $12K |
| 4 | $150M | 10% | +852% | $7K |
| 5 | $200M | 8% | +1233% | $10K |
| 6 | $400M BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $841 |
| 7 | $300M | 4% | +2369% | $19K |
| 8 | $500M | 4% | +2678% | $148 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only...
This prediction market tracks whether Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch? will occur, with $82K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by cryptocurrency market dynamics, regulatory developments, and on-chain sentiment.
The market is closely contested, with $40M leading at just 42%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (22% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is $40M at 42% probability, with $82K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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