O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 74% | +36% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 62% | +63% | - |
| 3 | Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita | 55% | +83% | $18K |
| 4 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 52% | +90% | - |
| 5 | Ends before Round 3? | 50% | +98% | - |
| 6 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 44% | +127% | - |
| 7 | Fight won by decision? | 40% | +153% | - |
| 8 | Decision or Draw | 40% | +153% | - |
| 9 | Keita to win by KO/TKO? | 37% | +170% | - |
| 10 | Ends before Round 2? | 36% | +182% | - |
| 11 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 34% | +194% | $236 |
| 12 | Pico to win by KO/TKO? | 32% | +217% | - |
| 13 | Keita in Round 1 | 30% | +233% | - |
| 14 | Pico in Round 1 | 28% | +257% | - |
| 15 | Keita in Round 2 | 28% | +257% | - |
| 16 | Fight won by submission? | 28% | +264% | - |
| 17 | Pico in Round 2 BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | - |
| 18 | Pico in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 19 | Keita in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims) will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (72% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-25. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 21, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 74% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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