Ends before Round 3? leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ends before Round 3? | 78% | +27% | - |
| 2 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 65% | +54% | $7 |
| 3 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 61% | +64% | $2K |
| 4 | Ends before Round 2? | 58% | +71% | - |
| 5 | Baraniewski to win by KO/TKO? | 52% | +90% | $31 |
| 6 | Baraniewski in Round 1 | 45% | +122% | $39 |
| 7 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 32% | +212% | - |
| 8 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 32% | +217% | $1K |
| 9 | Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski | 30% | +228% | $21K |
| 10 | Menifield to win by KO/TKO? | 30% | +228% | - |
| 11 | Fight won by submission? | 30% | +239% | - |
| 12 | Fight won by decision? | 30% | +239% | - |
| 13 | Baraniewski in Round 2 | 28% | +251% | - |
| 14 | Menifield in Round 1 | 28% | +257% | - |
| 15 | Decision or Draw | 28% | +257% | - |
| 16 | Menifield in Round 2 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 17 | Menifield in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 18 | Baraniewski in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 19 | Fight to Go the Distance? BEST VALUE | 16% | +506% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Alonzo Menifield" if Alonzo Menifield is officially declared the winner of the fight against Iwo Baraniewski at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 202...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Ends before Round 3? at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (78% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 18, 2026 at 09:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Ends before Round 3? at 78% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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