O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 74% | +36% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 68% | +46% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 62% | +63% | - |
| 4 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 59% | +69% | - |
| 5 | Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III | 58% | +71% | $17K |
| 6 | Fight won by decision? | 57% | +75% | - |
| 7 | Decision or Draw | 57% | +75% | - |
| 8 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 40% | +150% | - |
| 9 | Fili to win by KO/TKO? | 34% | +194% | - |
| 10 | Ends before Round 3? | 34% | +199% | - |
| 11 | Kamaka III to win by KO/TKO? | 30% | +239% | - |
| 12 | Fili in Round 1 | 28% | +251% | - |
| 13 | Fili in Round 2 | 28% | +264% | - |
| 14 | Kamaka III in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 15 | Fili in Round 3 | 26% | +285% | - |
| 16 | Kamaka III in Round 1 | 26% | +285% | - |
| 17 | Kamaka III in Round 2 | 25% | +300% | - |
| 18 | Fight won by submission? | 19% | +426% | - |
| 19 | Ends before Round 2? BEST VALUE | 18% | +441% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Andre Fili" if Andre Fili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kai Kamaka III at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It w...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III (Featherweight, Main Card) will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (81% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 10, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 74% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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