Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy | 74% | +34% | $43K |
| 2 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 71% | +41% | - |
| 3 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 62% | +60% | - |
| 4 | Ends before Round 5? | 62% | +60% | - |
| 5 | Ends before Round 4? | 56% | +77% | - |
| 6 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% | +98% | - |
| 7 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 44% | +125% | - |
| 8 | Ends before Round 3? | 42% | +138% | - |
| 9 | O/U 3.5 Rounds | 38% | +160% | - |
| 10 | Fight won by submission? | 36% | +178% | - |
| 11 | Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? | 34% | +190% | $6 |
| 12 | O/U 4.5 Rounds | 34% | +194% | - |
| 13 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 34% | +199% | $4 |
| 14 | Fight won by decision? | 34% | +199% | $30 |
| 15 | Decision or Draw | 34% | +199% | - |
| 16 | Ends before Round 2? | 32% | +208% | - |
| 17 | Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? | 30% | +239% | - |
| 18 | Tsarukyan in Round 1 | 30% | +239% | - |
| 19 | Tsarukyan in Round 2 | 28% | +257% | - |
| 20 | Tsarukyan in Round 3 BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) will occur, with $43K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours alone (62% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 15, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy at 74% probability, with $43K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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