The market strongly favors Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas | 86% | +17% | $18K |
| 2 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 83% | +20% | - |
| 3 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 60% | +67% | $28 |
| 4 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 60% | +68% | $1K |
| 5 | Hasan to win by KO/TKO? | 58% | +72% | $128 |
| 6 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 42% | +135% | - |
| 7 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 36% | +182% | $424 |
| 8 | Fight won by submission? | 8% | +1150% | $7 |
| 9 | Rojas to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $49 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Bilal Hasan" if Bilal Hasan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nilson Rojas at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flyweight, Main Card) will occur, with $20K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (87% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 29, 2026 at 03:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas at 86% probability, with $20K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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