Ends before Round 3? leads at 76%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ends before Round 3? | 76% | +32% | - |
| 2 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 70% | +42% | - |
| 3 | Ends before Round 2? | 51% | +96% | $1K |
| 4 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 46% | +117% | $192 |
| 5 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 42% | +135% | $3K |
| 6 | Franco in Round 1 | 40% | +153% | - |
| 7 | Fight won by submission? | 38% | +167% | - |
| 8 | Franco to win by KO/TKO? | 37% | +170% | $275 |
| 9 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 24% | +308% | - |
| 10 | Brendson Ribeiro vs. Felipe Franco | 22% | +365% | $32K |
| 11 | Franco in Round 2 | 20% | +413% | - |
| 12 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 18% | +471% | - |
| 13 | Fight won by decision? | 17% | +488% | - |
| 14 | Decision or Draw | 17% | +488% | - |
| 15 | Ribeiro to win by KO/TKO? | 14% | +641% | $10 |
| 16 | Ribeiro in Round 1 | 10% | +852% | - |
| 17 | Ribeiro in Round 2 | 6% | +1438% | - |
| 18 | Franco in Round 3 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | - |
| 19 | Ribeiro in Round 3 | 4% | +2400% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Brendson Ribeiro" if Brendson Ribeiro is officially declared the winner of the fight against Felipe Franco at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10,...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Felipe Franco (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) will occur, with $37K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Ends before Round 3? at 76%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours alone (69% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 10, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Ends before Round 3? at 76% probability, with $37K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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