O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 72% | +39% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 70% | +43% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 55% | +83% | - |
| 4 | Fight won by decision? | 47% | +113% | - |
| 5 | Decision or Draw | 47% | +113% | - |
| 6 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 46% | +120% | - |
| 7 | Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell | 44% | +130% | $25K |
| 8 | Ends before Round 3? | 38% | +163% | - |
| 9 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 34% | +199% | - |
| 10 | Fight won by submission? | 30% | +228% | - |
| 11 | Brener in Round 1 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 12 | Brener in Round 2 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 13 | Brener in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 14 | Harrell in Round 1 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 15 | Harrell in Round 2 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 16 | Harrell in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
| 17 | Ends before Round 2? | 22% | +365% | - |
| 18 | Harrell to win by KO/TKO? | 16% | +545% | - |
| 19 | Brener to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 14% | +590% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Elves Brener" if Elves Brener is officially declared the winner of the fight against Josiah Harrell at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26,...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card) will occur, with $25K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (74% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-27. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 25, 2026 at 15:05 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 72% probability, with $25K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms