The market strongly favors O/U 0.5 Rounds at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 91% | +10% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 79% | +27% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 66% | +50% | $5 |
| 4 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 63% | +59% | $24 |
| 5 | Fight won by decision? | 62% | +63% | - |
| 6 | Decision or Draw | 62% | +63% | $190 |
| 7 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | 50% | +98% | $53K |
| 8 | Ends before Round 3? | 28% | +264% | $10 |
| 9 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 21% | +376% | - |
| 10 | Fight won by submission? | 16% | +525% | - |
| 11 | Aliev to win by KO/TKO? | 16% | +545% | - |
| 12 | Ends before Round 2? | 15% | +567% | - |
| 13 | Aliev in Round 1 | 10% | +900% | - |
| 14 | Dawson in Round 1 | 8% | +1150% | - |
| 15 | Dawson in Round 2 | 8% | +1150% | - |
| 16 | Dawson in Round 3 | 8% | +1150% | $6 |
| 17 | Dawson to win by KO/TKO? | 8% | +1233% | - |
| 18 | Aliev in Round 2 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | - |
| 19 | Aliev in Round 3 | 6% | +1438% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) will occur, with $53K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: O/U 0.5 Rounds is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $35K traded in the last 24 hours alone (66% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-25. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 23, 2026 at 17:15 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 91% probability, with $53K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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