The market strongly favors Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison | 92% | +9% | $30K |
| 2 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 62% | +61% | - |
| 3 | Steveson to win by KO/TKO? | 58% | +71% | - |
| 4 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Fight won by submission? | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Ellison to win by KO/TKO? | 48% | +106% | - |
| 7 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 48% | +111% | - |
| 8 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 28% | +264% | - |
| 9 | O/U 1.5 Rounds BEST VALUE | 18% | +471% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Gable Steveson" if Gable Steveson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims) will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (44% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 07, 2026 at 08:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison at 92% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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