Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier | 80% | +24% | $130K |
| 2 | Ends before Round 2? | 68% | +47% | - |
| 3 | Ends before Round 3? | 68% | +48% | - |
| 4 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 62% | +63% | $688 |
| 5 | Mahjoub in Round 1 | 55% | +82% | - |
| 6 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 52% | +94% | $6K |
| 7 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% | +100% | $1K |
| 8 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% | +100% | $14 |
| 9 | Mahjoub to win by KO/TKO? | 40% | +150% | $712 |
| 10 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 24% | +317% | $3K |
| 11 | Fight won by submission? | 24% | +317% | $23 |
| 12 | Decision or Draw | 24% | +326% | - |
| 13 | Fight won by decision? | 18% | +441% | - |
| 14 | Faglier to win by KO/TKO? | 14% | +614% | $56 |
| 15 | Mahjoub in Round 2 | 12% | +700% | - |
| 16 | Faglier in Round 2 | 12% | +700% | - |
| 17 | Faglier in Round 3 | 10% | +953% | $13 |
| 18 | Mahjoub in Round 3 | 8% | +1076% | - |
| 19 | Faglier in Round 1 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Javad Mahjoub" if Javad Mahjoub is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims) will occur, with $62K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $58K traded in the last 24 hours alone (93% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 17, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier at 80% probability, with $62K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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