O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 72% | +40% | $3 |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 66% | +50% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 64% | +55% | $94 |
| 4 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 55% | +82% | $77 |
| 5 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 34% | +194% | $200 |
| 6 | Riley to win by KO/TKO? | 32% | +212% | $400 |
| 7 | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | 30% | +228% | $38K |
| 8 | Fight won by submission? | 28% | +264% | - |
| 9 | Kamaka III to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $17 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It w...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims) will occur, with $39K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $31K traded in the last 24 hours alone (80% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 10, 2026 at 13:45 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 72% probability, with $39K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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